Nearly 1 Million Jobs Vanish—Impact on Self-Storage Explained

THE SELF STORAGE REPORT — EPISODE TRANSCRIPT Episode: Nearly 1 Million Jobs Vanish—Impact on Self-Storage Explained Co-host: Thaddeus Campbell — Director of Business Development, S3 Partners Host: Chris Berg — Abernathey Development Recorded: September 9, 2025 Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpf7C4B6WvI Key topics: BLS revising payrolls down 911,000 in a single benchmark revision; the earlier May and June revisions and the fired BLS chief; Sara Eisen pressing a CNBC guest on how the data was that far off; Polymarket and Kalshi odds shifting from a 50 bips cut toward 25 bips ahead of the September FOMC; Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole and the 10-year Treasury as the real mortgage benchmark; the 50th anniversary SSA show in Las Vegas and its all-star CEO panel (Public, Extra Space, U-Haul, William Warren Group, StorageMart); Joe Margolis saying an AI-generated ECRI complaint letter keeps him up at night; Jason Koonin of Bluebird Storage on discount and ECRI strategy; the William Warren Group CEO calling this the hardest development environment in 31 years; Joe Russell's $800 million pipeline; 20 of 27 real estate funds sitting at 0% self-storage allocation against a typical 4% target; Stan Bonia at Safeguard Self Storage struggling to hit his 4% allocation; Alex Burnham on homebuilder rate buydowns lifting storage demand in new subdivisions; Mike Burnham, Stan Kroenke and Manhattan Mini Storage achieved rates falling since 2021; Toy Storage Nation in Dallas on September 26 and the Snowmass Executive Ski Workshop January 12-15 Note: Speaker attribution reconstructed from raw captions. Light cleanup of transcription errors only; wording preserved. Timestamps and YouTube chapter markers removed. Turns marked [attribution inferred] could not be attributed with certainty. ————————————————————————————— Chris Berg: We start today's show here on 99 September 9 with breaking news. Job numbers revised downward by 911,000. Yes, can nearly a million jobs revised downward. So, we're going to get into those numbers today and ask what in the world is going on. Kudos to the self-storage report by the way. Welcome to the self-storage report. I'm your host Chris Berg along with Rad Thad. And I say kudos to the self-storage report cuz Rad Thad, you and I have been saying for quite some time, hey, things are softening. Microsoft is getting rid of 6,000 here, 3,000 more there. AI is displacing jobs. You could you got the sense that things were softening. Now, now the numbers bear that out. What say you? Thaddeus Campbell: Well, first of all, I'm going to smile a little bit. My favorite hour or one minute of the week, I said hour, I meant 60 seconds, is the countdown that goes on as we're getting to come on and I'm bobbing my head to the music that's going and just let me say how much fun it is to come on and do this show. put a little positivity because the rest of the show may not be as positive as the the 60-second countdown music is. Um that you know that's scary quite frankly and you know who knows there could be some reasons for that to happen. We've kind of postulated about the politics that's going on around the Fed coming up next week. No matter what you say about it though, the reality is we're seeing it all across the board. Look at the numbers of unemployment for recent college grads. That's double digits. You know, we've talked about the problems in the tech sector with programmers. You know, there is some serious softness in the market right now and inflation is what inflation is. People are having a hard time paying bills. Um the jobs report just the latest in some scary data that's been coming out really ever since. This is show number 16 for us and it feels like every week there's another serious data point that we're going over that does not bode well for the overall economy. And you know, by default, even though storage does better than a lot of other assets in a down economy, certainly not what we're looking forward to in the storage sector. Chris Berg: Well, not necessarily, but you and I talked about before. And again, we want to share with you, look, this is the only 30 minutes to watch if you want to be making smart self-storage investments because I feel like we've been pretty good about saying, hey, here's what's coming down the pipeline. Pay attention. And the data continues to bear that out to be so. And so to go back to what you just mentioned, because we always like to tie this into, okay, 911,000 people revised downward. What does that mean for storage? We've said before, I never want to see high unemployment. I definitely don't want to see stagflation and I think that's the direction that we're going and people become unemployed, they start moving around some more, maybe moving in back with mom and dad, which fortunately unfortunately bodes well typically for self-storage demand. So, um the piece I really want to get to is this, right? Like this is not 1825, this is not 1925, this is 2025. We've got AI, we've got the internet. How in the world does the US federal government miss by nearly a million jobs? That is embarrassing. I want to share with people here um a sound bite that I found that I think is just really powerful in the context of where we're at today in the world. I mean, you hinted towards, hey, the Fed, I mean, obviously this opens the door for the Fed to make some decisions next week, which you're going to talk about more in a minute. But what I really want you to pay attention to here is the reporter, the anchor asked the appropriate question. Now, this gentleman here, don't remember his name off the top of my head. He's been on CNBC for decades, decades. And I want you to notice the answer to what I believe is the most obvious question in this conversation that we're having right now. And then I just want you to think critically, Thad, when I was on the news, I would always tell people, don't trust me. Don't trust this station. You got to trust your gut. And you got to trust God. Because right now, I think that's really the only thing you can be trusting these days. Because again, here's a guy sitting in a chair making good money, invested in hard assets. He's going to be fine. And she asked the right question and here is his response. Sara Eisen, CNBC (clip): Last few months have been have been weaker. And then the second is my question about the the process. So how how were we almost a million jobs short in terms of you know there have been questions lately about how this this process this data the president raised it. He fired the BLS chief. Does this feed into those concerns about about how the data was so off? CNBC guest (clip): I I think it should. And I'll tell you why, Sarah. Because when I look at the history of these as a percentage of payrolls actually, they do a pretty good job when you look at the Chris Berg: I mean, Thad, I can go on to this and he does get into some of, you know, the how here, but I I just want to get your thoughts. you've got a media background and again we missed by a million jobs not in 1825 not in 1925 in 2025 and this guy responds like well you know they did a pretty good job in the past you know I think that it's very you you sent me a a tweet from X earlier today and this lady was complaining about the state of the economy and inflation and you know we're not going to play that on the show because it would be the whole thing would be bleeped but listen The average American does not have a lot of faith in our government right now. I think that's a pretty an equivocal statement that I can make that is not going out on a limb in any way, shape, or form. And so we voiced over the last few weeks, I certainly have. My worry that the Fed does cut rates next week. And because of the lack of faith in what's going on in the economy, it has the opposite effect on mortgage rates because people are so unsure of what's going on. when we see someone come on MSNBC, I think this was uh CNBC and say something like, "Well, it's been pretty good." When we just saw May and June's numbers get revised last month. Now, I think this was like the beginning of the year through April that they just revised another 990 911,000 down. That does not inspire any more confidence in what's going on at a governmental level in the people, right? And ultimately, who's going to be buying 10-year Treasury bonds, which are going to be the hallmark of what happens in the mortgage market, right? 10-year Treasury bonds are how we set mortgage rates. So, for me, these types of things are scary. We're try we're at a point where we want to try and inspire confidence in the market. And the exact opposite happens week after week after week. But I want to get to the core of this. like how how can you be a million jobs off in 2025? Thaddeus Campbell: Yeah, it it boggles the mind, right? What's the reporting practice? I read an article very briefly today. Obviously, this news just dropped this morning and they were like, well, they went back now and they're studying the actual tax filings and and you know, payroll taxes that are being paid. Well, that begs the question, why weren't they doing that to report the numbers in the first place? How were they coming up with these numbers? Were they just saying, "Hey, you know, a a employer goes and reports, hey, we hired a thousand people last month, and that's the number." Chris Berg: That's my point. When you look at some of the inflation data, that's what they do. They actually do like polling like, "Hey, are you what's more expensive for you?" Like it it is it it is it's shocking to me because here's the thing I want to get at as well. Now, what's going to happen, and I'm going to share with you some information in a second, but now you're going to have the chairman of the Federal Reserve that's going to be able to stand in front of the American people and and make a case as to why he should be cutting rates based off the labor market, which now we've just revised down, which we knew this data was going, if you actually looked at the numbers for quite some time. And if you remember when he was in Jackson Hole, you and I talked about this, the system's broken. Anytime one human being can stand up for 20 to 25 minutes, make a speech, totally vanilla, basically say nothing, and hint towards a cut, and yet the Dow goes up 800 points, like something's wrong there. And we're going to get into some more data here in a minute, where Gen Zers now are saying, yeah, one of my biggest concerns is inflation, financial independence, like it's it's just not right. And I want to let people know, in fact, you're going to talk about this later, but when we were at the SSA event, um there was a prayer meeting, so we all get a chance to say our prayers. I don't know why. All I know is the Holy Spirit said to me like, "We need to be praying for the people at the Federal Reserve." Like I I am tired of middle America, lower income people just struggling to try to put food on the table while people in the upper echelons, they just buy their hard assets, sit around, and they grow. And now fortunately that I'm I don't know if I should speak for you, but there are people in this industry that that's where we're at. You buy real estate, you buy some stocks, you know, good for us. And yet there's a lot of people out there right now as this woman that showed on that vid video that they're struggling. And I would just love to see, hey, you know what? Let's make a dollar a dollar again. High tide raises all ships and let's lift everybody up. And I just don't think the Federal Reserve right now is the answer to some of these uh challenges. Now, with that being said, you just mentioned, hey, probably is going to pose well for uh what's going to happen here coming up, which by the way, this is next week. I don't know. Are you playing Polymarket or Kalshi at all, Thad? I I only know what these are because you sent them to me a couple weeks ago. Thaddeus Campbell: I have not started. I'm not a big gambler, so I've stayed away from it. I I you know, here's the deal. Just what you said, how can you gamble on this stuff when the numbers change every week, right? Like it's very hard to make an informed and intelligent, you know, guess as to what's going to happen when they come out and change the data a week before what's supposed to be. And this is a major decision that, you know, quite frankly, to your point, is going to affect hundreds of millions of people that have no control over the decision-making process, Chris Berg [attribution inferred]: which, you know, yes, speak for me away on that hilltop because I'll preach from mountaintop on that. Thaddeus Campbell: And by the way, when you vote in November, I correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Jerome Powell's name was on the ballot. So, private institution, it has, you know, and and we saw this, right? Trump tried to fire one of the Fed board chairs. Guess where that went? Nowhere. Because they're a private bank. He has no control over that. Right. Chris Berg: Can you Can you tell that Thad and I have both done news in the past? We're off on a tangent. But I want to get to this Polymarket Kalshi situation cuz look, I don't Thaddeus Campbell: You made the mistake of asking me a question and thinking I was going to stay on task. Chris, Chris Berg: I don't I don't do any gambling these things. But what's fascinating if you're not familiar with these markets, it's called Polymarket. There's another one called Kalshi where you can go and basically bet on anything from sports to, you know, as you can see here, politics, crypto, geopolitics, but obviously the Fed decision as well. And here's what I want people to see is I love how it's got the charting. So you can see kind of where look look at the 50 bips in the light blue was at 48 48, you know, in the fours. Then it kicked up a little bit actually got into like almost 20% and now after the numbers today the the 50 bips decrease coming up in September's down but now the 25 bips is back up above 80 which you know according to markets I think you can say it's pretty safe bet uh we're going to get there but another interesting data point I want to share with people is is this is that right now the markets are voting and saying hey cut cut cut over the next three FOMC meetings um 42% of the people believe that there's going be at least a 25 bips cut over each of the concurring three meetings. So, we'll see if that bears out to be true. But again, I think it's really fascinating if you're into stocks like I am to just sort of see what the market is communicating where people are actually putting their money. And essentially what this says if you said, "Hey, I'm I'm yes to this cut cut, you know, you put in your 42 cents or whatever. If you get that right, you end up getting a dollar back." And so a lot of young people are are playing these odds because of inflation. and they're like, "Oh, hey, I can go bet on a Fed cut or a game and make okay, like I'll I'll do that." So, just your reaction to a cut cut and then obviously the numbers here potentially on uh I think I may have lost it, but um you know what's going to take place uh coming up in September? Thaddeus Campbell: Look, you know, coming back to self storage, we need housing movement. I'm going to play a clip later that's going to talk to you on a very micro level how what little movement there is going on in the country. and and I'll let the the quote speak for that from Alex Burnham later, but a little bit of housing movement right now is making a big difference in self-storage rates. So, you know, fingers crossed if they do multiple rate cuts over the next few Fed meetings that it has the intended effect on mortgage rates. You know, I'm on the record as saying I'm a little nervous that the opposite's going to happen. Um that, you know, the Fed's going to cut the Fed rate and the 10-year is going to go up. Hopefully, that's not the case. Hopefully, the Fed cuts the Fed rate and the 10-year Treasury comes down commensurately with it and we start to see some more movement in the housing market because that's really what the self-storage industry needs right now as we're trying to absorb the supply that came on board in 2022, especially in 23, which was the record year ever for deliveries, and 24, which was a close second. Chris Berg: I want to talk about some of the biggest takeaways last week from the 50th anniversary SSA. Before I do, want to say thank you at TractIQ. They're our data partner here on the self-storage report. We had Noah on the show with us last week when we were in Vegas. He did an incredible job sort of breaking down his takeaways from the SSA. So, in case you did not see that show, please go back and watch it. We got a great email today from one of the people that watched it said, "Hey, so much great information." So, would encourage you to do that. And of course, obviously, if you're out here in the storage business looking for the right data to make informed decisions about where you want to put your investments, definitely watch the self-storage report and also go get yourself some TractIQ at tractiq.com. Um, and help ensure that, hey, at least I'm making an informed decision as I go put place some capital in some different potential assets. So, here's my question for you, Thad. We had an amazing all-star CEO panel. You had the CEO from public, CEO from Extra, CEO from U-Haul, CEO from William Warren Group, CEO from Storage Mart. The question was asked, "What keeps you up at night? What do you think was kind of the main answer from these top five CEOs?" Thaddeus Campbell: Uh, you know what? You sat in on that one and I didn't. And and you know, I I think that if I had to I can only speak from what I would think they would say and I would say it's going to be if the housing market slows down more, they're in more trouble than they're in already. Chris Berg: Very fair answer. I think what's interesting, you had the CEO from public store, CEO from William Warren Group is really about what's going on from a legislative perspective. I think California grabbed a lot of attention going, "Hey, what what potential restrictions could be placed on our assets here and what could that mean for these assets long term?" Had a conversation this morning, the person's in tech, so this answer may, you know, lean a little towards that direction. And yet, I will share with you because I want to get your reaction to this. Joe Margolis, the CEO of Extra Space, was asked, "What keeps you up at night?" And he said, "You know what? We recently got a form letter that you could see was done in AI to fight back against our ECRI. So, this person had an interesting reaction to that answer. What What do you What's your reaction to it? Thaddeus Campbell: Uh, met Noah Springer at the SSA show and and shout out to Noah Springer. It was really nice to talk to him. They're paying attention. I did a a podcast interview with Jason Koonin probably 4 or 5 months ago right now. Jason Koonin, the CEO of Bluebird Storage, very big up in Canada. um really talking about the ECRI policy and the discount strategy and how from a legislative perspective we didn't think it was a great thing but also just from a a consumer perspective not a great thing. What I can tell you is extra space is listening. they they you know they were watching that podcast and and listening to what the the response to that policy was and we've seen it recently where they've really gone back to a place I can't remember who I was talking to at the SSA show but they're in a market with extra space in their market where web rates were $70 and now they're 165 you know same market you know ostensibly hasn't changed that much so you're seeing people start to steer away from that policy Chris Berg: the reaction I want from you So, and and this is what this person was sharing with me is they were shocked that a letter generated from ChatGPT is what's keeping Joe Margolis up at night. Thaddeus Campbell: It's I would guess I would have to ask him what about that is keeping him up at night. Is there another aspect of that that I'm missing that that creates some tension for them? Because, you know, ultimately, are you surprised that you implemented this discount strategy? And I say you, it wasn't just extra space. I don't mean to throw them under the bus. They they were certainly not alone in the employment of the discount strategy and the ECRI strategy that followed it up. Um, you know, were you surprised to get negative feedback from that? I'd be really interested to know why that particular letter does keep him up at night, honestly. Chris Berg: I mean, my guess is like he feels like, hey, now they can just continue to plug this into ChatGPT and now all over the country, people are going to be able to very easily fight back against the ECRI, which has been a big part of their their business model as of late. So, be interesting to see sort of how that plays out. Now, with that being said, um I don't know if you know the the CEO from U-Haul, but great he seemed to me like just a great kind of cut to the chase, no-nonsense kind of guy. And when he was asked, he was basically, look, here's the first thing I want to say to y'all is like just do what's right for your customers, right? Like you just do that. Because he goes, a lot of these stories I'm getting from people that are fighting back on ECRI is because they were a cousin of a legislator or spouse of a legislator. And so yeah, when you do that to your customers, typically bad things are going to happen. And to be fair to U-Haul, if you if you're into, you know, TractIQ and you're looking at different rates across the country, like very rarely does U-Haul discount rates. It's sort of like, hey man, it's two bucks and that's what it is. So take it or leave it. Good luck. Thaddeus Campbell: They have that ability to really just hold to their price because a lot of their business is based on the trucks, not on the storage. The storage is a is a complement to the trucks. Um, which is great for them, but like should that Listen, you and I are unabashed in our our Christianity. Should it be that hard to just do what's right for other people? You know, I I go back to that that all the time. Like there's one rule, right? Treat other people the way you'd want to be treated. It doesn't seem like it's rocket science. To your point, California, the legislator that bought that brought that forward, it was her mom. In the New York City legislation we talked about a couple of months ago, it was a grandmom that was affected of a New York City legislator. So, yeah, it, you know, when it hits close to home, be careful of what the outcomes can be. Chris Berg: But now, to be fair to Joe Margolis or Joe Russell or even, you know, Joe from U-Haul, you say, do what's right for your customer. But also, you got to remember their customers are also their shareholders, right? So they've got a fiduciary I always get that name fiduciary fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders which for those guys saying hey I'm chasing occupancy right now because rates are down there's so much supply I got to do something to get warm bodies inside these buildings. So I I can see um the tension that they're in trying to go I got to get people in here but I also got to make sure I'm I'm taking care of my actual customers that are renting from us. So thoughts? Thaddeus Campbell: Yeah. I mean, listen, I I think that anytime you sacrifice long-term customer satisfaction for short-term financial gain, you're not doing your shareholders any favors. That's my immediate take. Sometimes you got to bite the bullet in the in the short term. I get it. You're you're driven to show a return to your shareholders, you know, but when you take a whole industry and you create a negative reaction to it with a short-term strategy, I don't know if that's really serving a fiduciary responsibility to your shareholder. That's that's my immediate take. Chris Berg: Huge kudos to Thad right here for our audience. Like he was not in these sessions. He was in other meetings. And Thad, I just want to share with you because I know you're friends with him and I I think he does does an amazing job. His family's been in self storage forever. But Chris Burnham sort of alluded to what you just said. He goes, "Look, we were public at one point. Now we're private." He's like, "Thank God. Like I don't have to worry about these public calls. I don't have to worry about what we're doing quarterly. Like I can take a much more long-term approach to our business." And he's like, "It's been, you know, really really good for us." So well well done, my friend. That was very very good. Thaddeus Campbell: Anytime you mention me in the same sentence as one of the Burnhams, I got Alex Burnham with a clip coming later on and honestly talk to Mike Burnham for a half hour while we were at the show. It's usually the highlight of my show. Mike Burnham who is been around storage for 50 plus years. Um, you know that family have tremendous respect for them. As a side note, they answer to Stan Kroenke who's one of their biggest backers financially. So, it may be better to have a bunch of shareholders quite frankly because I can promise you Stan Kroenke is not being kind and and warm and fuzzy when it comes to the returns they're showing him. Chris Berg: Well, you know what though? I think yeah, we'll leave it at that. But, uh, so I think the thing I want to share and we're going to get into if we have time some of this Gen Z poll recently came out, but I want to bring up the Gen Z piece only because there's also the demand study that has to say. Um, actually, you know what? Before we do that, I want to share something because I shared this last week and then Thad and I were talking yesterday. He's like, "My head went into a totally different space." Like I didn't even hear you say that. So, the CEO of the William Warren Group has been in the business for 31 years. And I want everyone to know that he said last week, he goes, "Look, this is the hardest it's been to develop storage in the 31 years I've been in the business." Joe Russell from Public said, "Hey, we've got an $800 million pipeline." and he goes, "You have no idea the pressure, the work that is going in to ensure that we are going to get the returns we need to go out and develop because it's just such high risk." And so I share that because obviously you're a developer and I'm a developer and so right now you just have to kind of sit there and say, "Okay, I'm going to I'm going to continue to do the work." But it's sort of like uh Noah said last week, I'm going to keep pounding my head against the wall and put a smile on my face. You know, the excitement is if we can get stuff out of the ground in the next year or two, it's going to be very well positioned on both fronts. There's lower supply coming on the market, so we expect to be able to lease up in a stronger environment. There's going to be less new product available. And quite frankly, public storage and Extra Space and Cube Smart and big P firms like Merit Hill and Prime and and Cityline Capital, they still want to buy self storage. So, if you can get stuff out of the ground right now in markets where it makes sense, you're going to be very strongly positioned. That's why I can beat my head against the wall looking at hundreds of sites to find one that makes sense and still have a smile on my face. With that being said, as well, um I don't think we got your reaction last week, so I want to repose the question to you. One of the things that came out of the CEO panel, too, was that um there's 27 real estate funds that are sort of off index, right? So, we're going to get into the technicals of that, but what Joe Margolis said is look, 20 of those funds, and typically there's a 4% allocation, let's say, to self-storage. 20 out of those 27 funds have got 0% allocation to self-storage at this point. They're going to want more. If you start talking about that kind of money with just a 4% allocation, I don't know about you, but I feel like there's plenty of capital slloshing around in self-storage. Now you take 20 more funds that have to put a 4% allocation into storage. That's just going to add billions and billions of dollars more. That may be overstating that a little bit, but not by much. Just your thoughts on billions more coming into the self. Thaddeus Campbell: I'll mention my friend Stan Bonia, vice president at safeguard self storage. They're a fully owned subsidiary of a of Merrill Lynch or Morgan. I can never remember which one. It's either it's one of the M's, Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch. They're owned by a fund and he's 4% of that fund is allocated for self-storage. He's having a hard time keeping up his end of the bargain on the 4% between value ad acquisition and ground-up self storage because it's so hard to underwrite to the things he was able to underwrite. He's been there for 15 20 years, right? And in 2025, it's much harder for him to keep up his share of that fund because it's so hard. So, if we get billions more coming up after this asset class, is it going to get easier for people to go find projects that work? No, because it's going to compress cap rates even more and you're going to be forced to buy more things at negative leverage. Not a great long-term strategy. Chris Berg: See, I might see it through a different lens. I mean, you're going to have all that capital coming in and keep in mind, you know, I think it was Charlie Munger today, show me the incentive and I'll show you the results. Right? So, a lot of these guys, they're asset managers. they get paid to deploy capital. So, say they're looking for I'm just going to use some round numbers here, but they really want a 20% IRR, but they know, hey, I've got to deploy this capital to get my management fees in order to pay myself. Maybe I'll squeeze this down to a 12 or a 15 just to get this money out of the out of the account and into some asset. So, I think you actually could see because of all the money there, you know, people selling at much higher um rates, if you will, or Thaddeus Campbell: Yeah, it's it's going to compress cap rates. For the people that own storage, it's great. They're going to be able to sell their their asset at a higher rate than they should have. For those of us trying to acquire, and I'm not a I'm not a value addition guy. I'm a ground-up development person. It's great for me and one of the reasons I'm really excited if I can get stuff out of the ground. We're working on six development projects right now. Great timing for that because if billions more come into the market, you're going to sell at a lower cap rate, higher price. Fantastic on that side of it. So, we're aligned in that vision. Where I my concern goes there is the people that are investing, the people that are putting LP money into deals and they're there's a lot of people out there that have invested money in deals where they're not going to see a 19 IRR that they were shown in a pro in a proforma. they're, you know, and the PPM that they got is not going to play out the way that it was shown. Now, do I feel terrible if someone got an eight or a 10% return when they were, you know, promised an 18 or a 19? They're still going to get a return. That's the bright side of self storage. Chris Berg: All right, we just got about three minutes left, so I want to give you a chance. We got a great clip from Mr. Burnham and just uh play that for us. Thaddeus Campbell: Love that talking about what happens when there's a little bit of housing movement in the self-storage industry. This is Alex Burnham, vice president of storage mart and Manhattan Mini Storage. They're vice president of acquisitions Alex Burnham, StorageMart / Manhattan Mini Storage (clip): affordable to the average first-time buyer than an and I think the conclusion is that folks like LAR or the Toll Brothers are offering rate buydowns to first-time buyers for their new subdivisions that they're building. So, a new merchant-built home is actually artificially more affordable to the average first-time buyer than an existing home. And we're seeing more movement and storage rentals in those specific submarkets. So, it it's just another data point that it continues to I think tell the same story that Americans are desperate to buy homes. They really want to do it. As soon as soon as some degree of affordability comes into this, they start to do it. And then we see it show up in our demand in those stores that housing is actually somewhat healthy. Thaddeus Campbell: Thought that went to a point we've been making a lot about the big home builders offering incentives. And I just thought it was fascinating how Alex pointed out what a difference that's making in their NOI growth in those stores and areas when those big home developers are building new developments and offering sub 5% mortgages by doing buydowns. Chris Berg: Very interesting thesis there. And obviously it seems like it's it's actually bearing out to be true for him because we hear a lot of guys in the business, hey, I'm basically just following LAR or Dr. Horton and seeing where they're going to be laying down a bunch of homes. We try to buy some dirt in those areas and then hope that things bode well for us in the long run. So, it's interesting to hear him say, "Hey, we're actually seeing that uh in our own sites where movements happening." Thaddeus Campbell: Which, by the way, I'll tell you, I I said I sat down with Mike Burnham for a half an hour. They bought Manhattan Mini Storage in 2021. I'm not going to go into the specifics of the numbers he shared with me, but let's just say that the Manhattan Mini Storage, they they have increased their total revenue in that portfolio. They've added a bunch of stores as third party management to do that. The the achieved rate per store in Manhattan has dropped since 2021 pretty markedly. And so, you know, Manhattan, we talked about this a couple weeks ago, has been a a NOI growth decline over the last couple quarters that have been reported. That's a challenge. You know, in a market like New York where you don't have that ability to have new homes built, obviously with with rate buydowns, you know, they've seen a big hit to what their proform look like when they bought that. Now, don't feel bad for them. It's 14 acres of real estate in Manhattan, so the upside potential, they're okay. like they're not upset about that investment in any way, shape, or form. But from a pure revenue standpoint for those stores, they've taken a hit. Chris Berg: Well, you bring up a really interesting point because if the gentleman who's leading right now, that mayoral race ends up winning in New York City, you know, who knows what that's going to vote for that that investment. Thaddeus Campbell: Yeah, I I don't even want to go there. That's that scares me so much to think of, you know, if the government starts socializing real estate, you and I are we might not be doing the self-storage report for very long. It's it's not it doesn't bode well for the future. And I you know, it's one of those be careful what you wish for type of deals for me. I Yeah, that that scares me on a deep level. Chris Berg: Yeah. All right, my friend. I know you're off to Italy, so uh we wish you well on your trip. Hope you'll be putting some stuff up on LinkedIn so we can follow along and that live vicariously through you and then I know you've got some shows coming up as well you want to share with people. Thaddeus Campbell: Yeah, really excited. There's a lot of upcoming events going on I want to let people know about starting with the Colorado SSA show next week. My partner Barry Sherman will be out there with a bunch of our staff from S3 Partners. I will be in Dallas, Texas at Toy Storage Nation on the 29th of September. Uh no, that is the 26th of September. I put the wrong date on the graphic. Sorry about that. Friday, September 26th. Uh September 29th and 30th, I will be in Tarrytown, New York with my man Stan Bonia, who I just mentioned at the New York SSA show. And then just a little teaser here from everything I've heard. The best show of the year for fun and for networking. A lot of good information, too. January 12th to the 15th, Snowmass in Colorado, the Executive Ski Workshop. Um looking forward to to hitting the slopes with you out there, Chris. Having some fun. and we may end up going live on Thursday morning the 15th of January from out in in uh Snowmass, Colorado. So, Chris Berg: a lot of good stuff coming up. One more thing I wanted to mention. Uh you guys that follow one major shout out though, like I like how you put rather than Snowmass, you put Show Mass for the Self Storage Report show. So, that was well done my friend. Thaddeus Campbell: I Yeah, that I'm going to pretend that was on purpose. All right. It was quick deal. Small bay summit for those you interested in small bay flex. I will be going live from this. The tickets, crazy enough, Chris, New York City, 180 seats sold out before they even started marketing the event. Absolutely unbelievable to see the interest in Small Bay Industrial Flex that's going on. As I said, most of you know that I'm heavy in this space. Um, I'll be going live from that event on the Stories Behind the Door podcast, so look forward to that. That is October 16th. Um, a lot going on, you know, really fun time in the real estate business and and a chance to get out and network. And we got to hang out last week and see each other live in Las Vegas. Can't express enough how important that is to people just to be able to shake hands, to share information as we're going through these challenges in the market, the more we can talk to other people, the less likely we are to make big mistakes. Chris Berg: Yeah. Anything else from the SSA that you want to share maybe we haven't talked about in the last two shows you think is important for people to know? Thaddeus Campbell: I nothing that comes off to mind. I will say this, we talked a lot about the prayer gathering that we had. You brought it up on this show. My highest interaction post on LinkedIn that I did from the SSA show was about the prayer gathering. So, I was really excited about that. Love to see that response. I talked a little bit last week about how I feel there's a spiritual crisis in our country. Guys, I'm going to say now in San Antonio in March at the SSA show, I am gunning to have a 100 plus people at that prayer gathering. So, I'm going to be putting out information for that. Chris, I really want to encourage I don't care if you're a Christian, if you're a Buddhist, I don't care what your beliefs are. Come and pray with us. God knows we could use it as a country and as individuals. Chris Berg: We're going to wrap it up there, my folks. That was fantastic. That is Thaddeus Campbell. Thank you very much. S3 Partners does a great job. Uh, I'm Chris Berg doing land acquisitions for Abernathy Holdings. If you got some land in California, uh, we would love to take a look at and potentially buy it from you to build some self storage. This is the self-storage report. Uh, please share this with colleagues and friends. We'll see you back here in a week, week and a half. We don't know yet cuz Thad's going to be in Italy. So, Thaddeus Campbell: next Thursday, I'm going live from Lamar on the Adriatic coast. I'm looking forward to having my toes in the Adriatic Ocean in the background of our picture, Chris. Chris Berg: All right, my friend. Thank you. Have a great week. We'll see you soon. — END OF TRANSCRIPT —